Homework Nine – alternate.

The smoothed plot with a smoothing parameter of 0.15 appears as follows (after reformatting):

MSE = 11,595.06

For w = 0.085, MSE = 11,263,54

For w = 0.05, MSE = 11,188.20

The lowest MSE occurs with the smoothing parameter = 0.05.

The plots hsow a downward trend in draft numbers as the year progresses.

The ACF plot (shown following) does not indicate the presence of any significant autocorrelation in the draft numbers.

The draft numbers show a downward trend as the year progresses making it more likely that people born later in the year receive lower draft numbers (and are thus less likely to be drafted.) There is no indication that draftnumbers are autocorrelated.