Homework Nine.

The line plot appears as follows:

There is some evidence of seasonality albeit with a great deal of variability.  There appear to be about 7 separate peaks.

The boxplot appears as:

A period of high body temperatures preceeds menstruation.  The onset of menstruation appears to be associated with a decrease in temperature of about 0.5 degrees.

The ACF plot is:

Based on the shape of the plot, the between-peak distance is roughly 35, and thus the length of the period is about 35 days.

The exponential smoothing model using a location parameter=0.15, linear parameter=0.01 and the seasonal parameter=0.05 appears as follows:

Here are the predicted temperatures for the next cycle, using parameters of 0.15, 0.01, and 0.15:

Here are the predicted temperatures for the next cycle, using parameters of 0.15, 0.01, and 0.25:

Location	Linear	Seasonal	Standard Error
0.15	0.01	0.05	0.221952
0.15	0.01	0.15	0.229522
0.15	0.01	0.25	0.236464