Technical Report Results

Technical Report TR661:
Diffusion and Adoption of IPv6 in the United States

Hillary A. Elmore, L. Jean Camp, Brandon P. Stephens
(Mar 2008), 11 pages
[This paper was presented as a working paper at the Cisco workshop on IP Address Allocation, Milpitas, CA March 3-4, 2008. It has been submitted to the Workshop on the Economics of Information Security 2008.]
What are the best case, current projection and reasonably optimistic cases for the adoption of the IPv6 protocol? This paper will analyze IPv6 routes from the ARIN Project to quantify the current adoption rate in order to offer three distinct views of three possible paths.

The data source consists of three hourly points from the last 60 months of IPv6 route records. This data will then be compiled and plotted on three distinct dissemination curves to determine three possible adoption timelines.

This paper will also discuss potential gains in security from adoption of the IPv6 protocol, along with a background discussion of analysis methods and the use of dissemination curves as a means of reporting findings. The paper will not include assertions about exhaustion of IPv4 space; however, it will inform research on the potential implications of this resource exhaustion.

Predictive S-curves will be used to demonstrate at what rate adoption will occur over the next 8, 10 and 12 years domestically. This will aid in showing whether or not domestic IPv6 adoption is on track with global adoption.

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